Especulação vs Investimento: guia para iniciantes de 2024

No mundo das finanças, compreender a distinção entre “especulação” e “investimento” é essencial, especialmente para iniciantes. Este guia investiga as nuances da especulação no mercado de ações e os princípios fundamentais do investimento, fornecendo uma comparação clara para aspirantes a traders e investidores em 2024.

Muitos potenciais traders precisam de esclarecimentos sobre as diferenças entre especulação e investimento. Os recém-chegados ao mercado muitas vezes caem na armadilha de pensar que ambos são a mesma coisa. Este não é o caso.

No entanto, um número surpreendente de traders começa a sua jornada como investidor e acaba se tornando um especulador sem perceber. Compreender o seu objetivo ao negociar não poderia ser mais importante e, uma vez que investidores e especuladores seguem caminhos muito diferentes, é essencial estar ciente do que envolve especular e investir.

O que significa “investir”?

A definição do dicionário para a palavra “investimento” gira em torno de gastar uma determinada quantia de dinheiro em um instrumento financeiro, negócio ou projeto para obter lucros. Essencialmente, investir é colocar seu dinheiro em algo que você acredita ter valor – geralmente fundos ou ações.

Quando você investe nos mercados financeiros, precisa tomar duas decisões vitais. Em primeiro lugar, você precisa decidir quanto capital dedicará ao seu investimento e, em segundo lugar, precisará determinar para que usará o capital, ou seja, em que investirá. Quando se trata de tomar essas decisões, você precisa realizar algumas análises importantes. Primeiro, você precisa examinar minuciosamente suas finanças e, em seguida, considerar os objetivos potenciais que deseja alcançar com o investimento que planeja fazer.

Embora não existam regras rígidas e rápidas para investir, faz sentido seguir alguns protocolos sensatos para evitar erros dispendiosos. Esses incluem:

Entendendo o investimento:

• Realizar uma análise aprofundada do setor de investimentos.
• Avaliar os concorrentes da empresa-alvo.
• Avaliar a solvência da empresa.
• Examine suas margens de lucro.
• Considere suas expectativas futuras.

Considerando a margem de segurança:

• Compreender o conceito de “margem de segurança”, que é a relação entre o preço das ações e o seu valor intrínseco.
• Reconhecer que um preço de activo mais baixo implica uma margem de segurança mais elevada.
• Considere a margem de segurança ao selecionar investimentos.

Adotando uma perspectiva de longo prazo:

• Reconheça que os retornos se materializam quando o mercado reconhece o verdadeiro valor do ativo.
• Planeje que os investimentos sejam compromissos de longo prazo.

Periods of high speculation

There have been some distinct periods in history when speculation was at an all-time high.

One of the most famous speculation bubbles in the history of the financial markets has to be the notorious Dot-com Bubble which occurred during the 1990s. Due to its size and scale, very few other bubbles can match this era when the internet’s growing popularity triggered an enormous speculation wave in the “new economy” technology businesses.

The result was the countless dot-com companies were given valuations worth billions of dollars from the moment they went public and the US100 Composite Index soared to its peak of more than 5000 in the year 2000 from just 750 in 1990. By late 2002, however, the index plunged by 78%, crashing dramatically and causing a recession in the USA.

Another period of high speculation came in 2008 when America was in the height of a boom in its economy. At the time, unemployment was at its lowest point in a decade and investor sentiment was high. Unfortunately, numerous factors came together to cause a significant crash in the market.

With a liability and asset mismatch, the use of excessive leverage, excessive risk-taking from financial institutions and equity prices that were out of alignment with valuations, it was the recipe for a perfect storm that led to a major recession from which recovery was slow.

What are the differences between speculation and investing?

There are four areas in which speculating and investing have significant differences:

Are there any similarities between investment and speculation?

While there are some major differences between investing and speculating as outlined above, there are also some similarities between the two forms of trading, especially when it comes to the errors that are commonly made.

Often, traders go from being an investor to being a speculator without actually realising it. As an example, an investor may purchase shares in a company, having completed a comprehensive analysis, however after only a short while, the price falls, so the investor sells at a lower price than they initially paid. They then purchase a different stock which is currently on an uptrend. This move indicates a change from investment to speculation.

Another common error that plagues both investors and speculators is a lack of understanding and knowledge. Too many people start investing or speculating in the belief that market movements occur solely because of chance. The result is frustration and significant losses.

Which is best – investment, or speculation?

As you might imagine, there are both advantages and disadvantages to both speculation and investment.

When it comes to advantages, investing can be a less risky choice than speculation, and often a better option for anyone who is a newcomer to trading the financial markets. Speculation, on the other hand, offers the advantage of lower commissions, easier market access, a need for less capital because of leverage, and also a wider variety of available financial assets for speculators to select from.

When it comes to disadvantages, investing requires more upfront capital to get started, and the commissions that need to be paid are higher. There are also fewer instruments to choose from overall. The downsides of speculation, meanwhile, include a higher risk of loss, an increased level of stress, and a need for more training and dedication to achieve the desired goal of reaping profits.

How do I choose between speculating and investing?

When you’re trying to decide what kind of trader you wish to be, it’s important to note that you don’t have to actually choose between speculation and investment. In fact, both forms of trading can complement each other well.

As an example, if a trader has shares in a company which has long been public but is now on a downward trend, they can speculate in order to cover the position. This can be achieved by using CFDs (Contracts for Difference) – derivative products with a price based on their underlying assets that allow trading in a bear market.

The trader could sell a Contracts for Difference on the share that they own to offset the investment value that has been lost without needing to sell any of the shares that they own.

With this in mind, it’s clear that traders can opt for both speculation and investment to suit their needs at any given time. However, for anyone who wishes to specialise in one or the other, investing is often the best choice for trading novices who are looking for a less risky option with a lower commitment in terms of both training and dedication.